🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Mon Nov 24 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • The Great Divide: The market is currently split between extreme fear and opportunistic greed. While Mister Crypto and Benjamin Cowen highlight a "Death Cross" (often a lagging indicator but psychologically heavy), Anthony Pompliano and Scott Melker are framing this as a "Great Bear Trap" for institutional accumulation.
  • The $91k Line in the Sand: Multiple technical nodes (Rekt Capital, Crypto Crew University, Crypto Anup) have identified $91,000 as the critical pivot. Failure to reclaim this level is currently driving price action, with bears pushing for lower targets.
  • Liquidations: Significant flush reported (Coin News cites $2B liquidations), suggesting the leverage froth has been wiped, potentially setting up a "Monster Squeeze" noted by Chart Hackers Group.

📰 News for Today

  • MSCI Delisting FUD: Crypto Banter reports panic around MSCI potentially delisting companies with >50% crypto assets, weighing heavily on MicroStrategy and correlated assets.
  • Trump's $20T Rumor: Lark Davis mentions a potential $20T plan by Trump that could act as a macro catalyst, though this remains speculative.
  • Zcash & Alt Weakness: Mark Moss and Mega Whale Crypto note Zcash promo exhaustion, signalling rotation back to majors or stablecoins.

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context:

  • Structure: Bearish Consolidation / Potential Capitulation. We are trading below the key $91k pivot. The market is range-bound with a heavy downside bias until $91k is reclaimed.
  • Market Cipher B: Watch for Bullish Divergences on the 4H timeframe as price approaches the $82k zone. Momentum waves making higher lows while price stabs lower would be the "Go" signal.

Key Levels:

  • Pivot: $91,000 (Must Reclaim)
  • Support 1: $82,000 (Rekt Capital Target / High Volume Node)
  • Support 2: $75,000 - $80,000 (MMCrypto Buy Wall / Psychological)
  • Resistance: $96,000 - $97,000 (DataDash Breakdown Level)

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Capitulation Wick]: Price fails to break $91k and flushes down to the $82,000 - $85,000 region. This aligns with Rekt Capital's projection. We look for a sharp V-shape recovery (Green Dot confirmation) here to enter Longs.
  2. Scenario 2 – [The Reclaim]: Bulls manage to push price back above $91,500 and hold it as support. This invalidates the bearish thesis and opens the door to $100,000 (DavinciJ15/Anup). Long on the retest of $91k.
  3. Scenario 3 – [The Bear Trend]: Price grinds lower, rejecting every attempt to rally past $90k. We ladder shorts into $90k-$92k targeting the breakdown.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • Confluence: The $82k level is a major confluence of previous structure and the target of the current breakdown pattern. Do not FOMO short into support.
  • Warning: Coin Bureau notes weak altcoin demand; avoid leverage on Alts (ETH/SOL) unless BTC confirms a reversal.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • Macro: Despite the "Death Cross," the consensus among macro-bulls (PlanB, Pompliano) is that this is a mid-cycle shakeout similar to 2019. The long-term target remains $125k-$150k, driven by sovereign adoption and ETF flows.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Mindset: "Trade like the market is sideways." Don't chase breakout candles. Sell resistance, buy support.
  • Execution: Use Limit Orders. If you are longing the $82k drop, set your bids now. Panic usually causes exchange lag.