🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Mon Nov 24 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Price Structure: Bitcoin is currently trading in a volatile range, struggling to reclaim the $91,000 breakdown level (Rekt Capital, Crypto Crew University). Current price action is hovering near $87,000 (Crypto Coin News), fighting to hold local support.
  • Sentiment Whiplash: The market is experiencing "extreme fear" and a 33% pullback (Mark Moss, DataDash), which contrarian traders like Anthony Pompliano and Camel Finance identify as a classic "blood in the streets" buying opportunity.
  • Institutional Flows: Conflicting reports of MicroStrategy continued accumulation versus rumors of a BlackRock sell-off (Crypto World).

📰 News for Today

  • Macro: Expectations of a December interest rate cut are providing a tailwind for risk assets (Crypto Coin News, Tom Crown).
  • Tech Correlation: Strong Nvidia earnings have de-risked the broader market, potentially setting up a crypto bounce (Crypto Banter).
  • On-Chain/Flows: Stablecoin dominance is high, suggesting capital is on the sidelines waiting to deploy (Coin Bureau).

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context:

  • Structure: Bearish/Neutral. We are in a local downtrend below the $91,000 pivot. The market is deciding between a "Bear Trap" before a rally to $104k (Cowen, Melker) or a continuation to $82k (Rekt, CCU).

Key Levels:

  • Pivot (Bear/Bull Line): $91,000
  • Resistance: $91,000 - $92,500, $104,000 (200 SMA)
  • Support: $86,373 (Local), $82,000 (Major), $73,000 (Deep Liquidity)

Long Setup(s):

  • Aggressive: Reclaim and retest of $87,500 with volume.
  • Conservative: Limit buys laddered in the $82,000 - $84,000 zone (Anticipating the Rekt Capital target as a bounce floor).

Short Setup(s):

  • Rejection Play: Limit sells at $91,000 - $91,800. (Betting on the bearish retest of the breakdown level).

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The "Cowen" Bounce]: Price reclaims $87k solidly and grinds up to test the $91k resistance. A break above $91k confirms a move to the 200-day SMA at $104,000. Trigger: 4H Candle close > $91k + Green Dot on MCB.
  2. Scenario 2 – [The "Rekt" Flush]: Bitcoin fails to hold $86,373. Bearish momentum accelerates, flushing price to $82,000 (next logical support) to liquidate late longs before any meaningful reversal. Trigger: 1H Candle close < $86k.
  3. Scenario 3 – [The Macro Reset]: A prolonged chop between $82k and $91k, frustrating both bulls and bears while stablecoin dominance slowly resets. (Coin Bureau).

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • Market Cipher B: Look for Bullish Divergence on the 4H timeframe (Lower Low in Price, Higher Low in Momentum Waves) as we approach $82k-$86k. Do not long without a Green Dot confirmation.
  • Psychology: The "Death Cross" mentioned by Alessio Rastani is a lagging indicator; use it as a contrarian signal if price is already oversold.
  • Execution: Do not FOMO into green candles. The $91k level is a brick wall until proven otherwise.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • Macro: While short-term bearishness prevails, the mid-term view remains split. Ben Cowen sees a bounce to $104k followed by a 2026 crash ($60k). PlanB and Pompliano view this as a mid-cycle pause in a Supercycle. The critical consensus is that $82k-$87k is an accumulation zone for the next leg up or the "lower high" bounce.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Commandment #6: Trade like the market is sideways. Buy support ($82-86k), Sell resistance ($91k+). Don't breakout trade in a chop.
  • Mental Stop: If entering longs, accept that price can wick to $73k (Crypto Crow). Ensure position size allows for wide invalidation.