🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Mon Nov 24 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Bitcoin experienced a significant liquidation event, dropping to lows around $82,000 before finding temporary stabilization.
  • The market printed a widely feared "Death Cross" (50 MA crossing below 200 MA), triggering algorithm-driven selling and fear-mongering.
  • Bullish Divergence Watch: Despite the price drop, several oscillators are suggesting the selling momentum is exhausted, hinting at a potential relief rally (Alessio Rastani, Crypto World).

📰 News for Today

  • ETF Outflows: Coin Bureau reports weak demand and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs as a primary driver for the breakdown.
  • Macro Reset: Scott Melker and Miles Deutscher frame the crash as a healthy "deleveraging" event rather than the start of a multi-year bear market.
  • Tech Signals: A confirmed Death Cross is dominating technical discussions, though historical data suggests a 75% probability of a rally in the following 1-3 months (Rastani).
  • Altcoin Weakness: Lack of demand for alts is exacerbating the feeling of a market freeze (Coin Bureau).

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context:

  • Structure: The market is in a High-Volatility Bearish Correction. We are currently testing a critical support floor ($82k-$85k).
  • Cipher B: Looking for Green Dots on the 4H/6H timeframes to confirm a "Blue Wave" bullish divergence against the $82k lows. Money Flow is likely thinning Red, signaling seller exhaustion.

Key Levels (BTC):

  • Resistance: $88,000 (Immediate), $92,000-$94,000 (Major Pivot), $96,000 (Bear/Bull Line).
  • Support: $82,000 (Recent Low), $74,500 (Next Major Structural Support).

Long Setup (Relief Bounce):

  • Zone: $81,500 - $83,500 (Catching the wick/double bottom). Short Setup (Dead Cat Fade):
  • Zone: $89,500 - $92,500 (Fade the relief rally).

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Relief Rally]: BTC holds the $82k-$85k floor. Sellers fail to push lower. We get a "Dead Cat Bounce" to backtest the breakdown levels at $88k and potentially $92k. Probability: Moderate-High (Short Term).
  2. Scenario 2 – [The Capitulation]: The $82k support fails under ETF outflow pressure. Price cascades to fill the CME gap around $85.3k (already filled?) and pushes toward $74,500. Probability: Moderate.
  3. Scenario 3 – [The Chop]: Price oscillates between $82k and $88k, frustrating breakout traders on both sides. Probability: Moderate.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • MMCrypto's Warning: Be very wary of the "Dead Cat Bounce." The first rally into $88k-$92k is a high-probability Short candidate unless volume is massive.
  • Contrarian Play: Sentiment is exceedingly bearish (Death Cross talk). Often, this marks a local bottom for a squeeze.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • Macro: While the short-term structure is broken, the long-term thesis ($10T market cap, $500k BTC) remains intact (PlanB). This is viewed as a "correction within a bull market" by veteran strategists (Pompliano, Moss).

💡 Pro Tips

  • Range Mindset: Do not chase breakouts. Buy Support, Sell Resistance.
  • Limit Orders: Volatility is high. Market orders will get slipped. Use the ladder entries provided below.
  • Patience: Wait for the 4H candle closes to confirm levels.