🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Mon Nov 24 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Heavy Sell-Side Pressure: Bitcoin has officially entered what Scott Melker and James Crypto Guru describe as "bear market territory," with the asset reportedly down ~31% from its cycle highs.
  • Technical Breakdown: Multiple analysts (Mister Crypto, Alessio Rastani) are flagging a "Death Cross" and broken macro uptrends. Rekt Capital identifies a new trading range between $86,000 (support) and $93,000 (resistance).
  • Institutional Flows: Coin Bureau highlights potential ETF outflows (Peter Schiff warning) exacerbating the downside.

📰 News for Today

  • CME Gap Magnet: Crypto Rover points to an unfilled CME gap at $85,300, suggesting high probability of a liquidity grab at this level.
  • Sentiment Split: While MMCrypto and others scream "Horrible," contrarian signals from Camel Finance and Snipers suggest Bitcoin is "massively oversold" at a weekly cycle low, hinting at a potential relief bounce.
  • Altcoin Divergence: While majors bleed, select alts show strength; Marzell is bullish on HBAR (triple bottom) and Crypto Moe is eyeing XRP.

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context:

  • Structure: Bearish/Range-Bound. We are currently in a "flush" phase looking for a floor. The macro uptrend is compromised unless $103k is reclaimed (Cowen), but the local range is defined as $86k - $93k.

Key Levels:

  • Long Setup (The CME Flush): Bid the $81,000 - $85,500 zone. (Confluence: CME Gap + Rastani Target + Weekly Cycle Low).
  • Short Setup (The Relief Fade): Short the $93,000 - $96,000 zone. (Confluence: Rekt Capital Resistance + Rastani Invalidation Level).

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Gap Fill & Bounce]: BTC drops to fill the CME gap at $85,300. We look for a Bullish Divergence on Market Cipher B (Lower Low in Price, Higher Low in Blue Momentum). This triggers a scalp Long targeting a mean reversion to $90k.
  2. Scenario 2 – [Bearish Continuation]: Price fails to hold $85,000. We see heavy Red Money Flow. This opens the door to Alessio Rastani's lower target of $81,000 and potentially Cowen's macro target of $65k. Do not catch falling knives without Green Dot confirmation.
  3. Scenario 3 – [Neutral Range]: BTC chops between $86k and $93k. We trade the edges: Short $92.5k, Long $86.5k. Focus on alts like HBAR if BTC stabilizes.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • "Death Cross" Warning: This lagging indicator is flashing. Historically, this brings volatility. Expect "scam wicks" in both directions.
  • Liquidity Hunt: The $85,300 level is the most obvious target for market makers. Do not front-run it too aggressively; let the limit orders fill.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • Macro Reset: Miles Deutscher and Mark Moss suggest we are in a "macro reset" or "corrective bounce in a downtrend." Long-term bulls (PlanB, Simon Dixon) remain convinced of the mid-2026 bull cycle, but short-term structure requires defensive trading.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Execution: "Trade like the market is sideways." Use Limit Orders only. Do not FOMO into market sells at support.
  • Psychology: When MMCrypto titles a video "THIS IS HORRIBLE," the bottom is usually near. Prepare for the bounce, but verify with Momentum Waves first.