🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Mon Nov 24 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Correction Dominates: The market is in a confirmed corrective phase, with Bitcoin losing the $96,000 level, flipping it from support to resistance.
  • Split Consensus: While Rekt Capital and Alessio Rastani flag confirmed bearish structures (lower highs, death cross), Coin Bureau and Ivan on Tech argue the on-chain data and institutional flows suggest this is a shakeout before continuation.
  • Altcoin Carnage: DataDash highlights a massive 50% crash in Solana, signaling broad market capitulation, while Cheeky Crypto notes mixed institutional signals on XRP.

📰 News for Today

  • Institutional Flows: Despite price drops, Coin Bureau reports positive on-chain metrics and flows, suggesting smart money accumulation.
  • CME Gaps: Crypto Rover identifies a critical CME gap at $85,300, a magnet for price action in the coming days.
  • Macro Reset: Miles Deutscher and Camel Finance frame this as a necessary "macro-driven reset" or daily cycle low to clear leverage before the next leg up.

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context:

  • Structure: Bearish Trending on LTF/MTF. Approaching oversold conditions on daily timeframes.
  • Status: Pivotal Area. We are sandwiched between the breakdown level ($96k) and major structural support ($81k-$85k).

Key Levels:

  • Resistance (Short Zone): $96,000 - $98,000 (Former support turn resistance / MMCrypto's "Dead Cat" top).
  • Support (Long Zone): $81,000 - $85,300 (Alessio's target zone + CME Gap).
  • Macro Floor: $72,000 - $75,000 (Danny Trades / Miles Deutscher levels).

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Dead Cat Bounce - Bearish]: Price rallies into the $96,000 - $98,000 region. This tests the breakdown level. If momentum (Market Cipher B) shows a Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs on momentum vs Higher Highs on price) + Red Dot, this is a high-confidence SHORT opportunity targeting the $85k gap.
  2. Scenario 2 – [The Gap Fill Bounce - Bullish]: Price flushes directly into the $81,000 - $85,300 zone to fill the CME gap. Look for a Green Dot + Bullish Divergence on the 4H/Daily chart. This is a "Buy the Fear" setup targeting a return to $90k+.
  3. Scenario 3 – [Macro Capitulation]: If $81,000 fails to hold on a daily close, the market is likely heading for the $72,000 - $75,000 reset level. In this case, cancel Longs and wait for stabilization at the macro floor.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • Trap Warning: MMCrypto warns of "dead cat bounces." Do not FOMO into green candles unless they reclaim $96k with volume. Treat rallies as selling opportunities until proven otherwise.
  • Confluence: The $85k level is a "Golden Zone" combining a CME Gap, structural support, and projected downside targets from multiple analysts.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • Macro View: The bull market fiscal dominance remains intact (Simon Dixon), but the cycle is undergoing a violent reset. Expect high volatility as liquidity is hunted at lower levels ($85k/$75k) before the "End of QT" narrative (Camel Finance) takes over.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Mindset: Trade the range, not the breakout. The market is hunting liquidity. Limit orders only.
  • Execution: Don't catch the falling knife blindly. Wait for the Market Cipher Dot confirmation on the 4H timeframe before entering the CME gap trade.