🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Mon Nov 24 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Bearish Breakdown: Bitcoin suffered a significant plunge, losing the critical $97,000 support level (Lark Davis), confirming short-term bearish dominance.
  • Dip Buying Activity: Despite the drop, intelligence reports a bounce from lows around $80,600 (DavinciJ15), suggesting aggressive institutional accumulation in the low $80ks.
  • Conflicted Sentiment: The network is sharply divided. While Chart Champions and Pompliano view this as a standard bull market correction targeting $98k reclaims, Rekt Capital and Alessio Rastani warn that macro uptrends are broken, risking a slide to $81,000–$85,000 if $96,000 is not reclaimed.

📰 News for Today

  • Institutional Flows: Coin Bureau reports positive on-chain data and ETF inflows supporting dip-buying.
  • Macro Reset: Miles Deutscher frames the selloff as a necessary "macro reset" rather than a cycle end.
  • Altcoin Divergence: While BTC struggles, Cheeky Crypto notes fundamental utility setups forming for XRP.

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context:

  • Structure: High Volatility / Range Construction. We are likely carving out a new trading range between the $80,000 support floor and the $96,000 breakdown resistance.
  • Market Cipher Decoder: Watch for Bullish Divergence on the 4H chart as price retests the $82k–$84k zone. Green dots here are high-probability triggers.

Key Levels:

  • Long Setup (The Retest Bounce): Target the $82,000 – $84,000 zone. (Confluence: My Financial Friend Buy Zone + Davinci Support).
  • Short Setup (The Breakdown Retest): Target the $96,000 – $98,000 zone. (Confluence: Broken Support Flip + EllioTrades Risk Reduction Zone).

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Relief Rally]: Price stabilizes above $84,000. Oversold RSI (Bitcoin Hyper) triggers a relief rally back to test the breakdown level at $93,000 (Rekt Capital's resistance). Action: Long the range lows.
  2. Scenario 2 – [Bearish Continuation]: Failure to hold $84,000 exposes the "Death Cross" targets mentioned by Alessio Rastani ($81k). If $80,600 breaks, panic selling could ensue. Action: Wait for the Short trigger at $96k or scalp the breakdown below $80k.
  3. Scenario 3 – [The Chop]: Price oscillates between $85k and $92k as the market digests the recent 6% plunge. Action: Range trade with tight stops.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • Trap Warning: Be wary of a "fake reclaim" of $97,000. Unless we get a weekly close above $86,000 (Rekt Capital), the trend remains fragile.
  • Execution: Do NOT market buy the dips. Use limit orders. The volatility is high enough to fill wicks.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • Macro: The long-term bull thesis remains intact (DavinciJ15, Pomp) with targets extending to mid-2026, but the immediate term requires respecting the broken structure. We are in a "buy the fear" phase, but only at deep discounts.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Mindset: "Trade like the market is sideways." Don't FOMO into breakouts; fade the extremes of the $80k-$98k range.
  • Risk: Volatility is at peak levels. Reduce position size to accommodate wider stops required by 5-10% swings.