🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Mon Nov 24 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Failed Auction at ATH: Bitcoin suffered a significant rejection at the $103,000 level (Cowen, Melker), confirming a local top and shifting market structure to bearish.
  • Support Breakdown: The critical $97,000 support was lost (Lark Davis), triggering a cascade that has pushed price towards the $82,000 - $85,000 zone.
  • Momentum Shift: Multiple nodes (Alessio Rastani, Chart Champions) report a "Death Cross" and bearish divergence on high timeframes, signaling that the trend has flipped.

📰 News for Today

  • ETF Outflows: Coin Bureau highlights that institutional outflows are driving the current breakdown.
  • CME Gap: Crypto Rover identifies an unfilled CME gap at $85,300, acting as a magnetic target for price action.
  • Macro Context: Miles Deutscher suggests the traditional 4-year cycle is morphing into macro-driven mini-cycles; currently in a macro-reset phase.
  • Solana Optimism: Despite BTC weakness, My Financial Friend and Altcoin Daily report strong institutional inflows into SOL, targeting significantly higher prices long-term.

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context:

  • The market is in a Confirmed Downtrend/Correction. We are currently in a "Falling Knife" scenario or approaching a temporary bounce zone around $82k. The strategy is to Sell Rallies into broken support.

Key Levels:

  • Resistance (Short Zone): $91,000 - $96,000 (Previous support lost, now resistance).
  • Support (Bounce Zone): $82,000 (MMCrypto Target) and $71,000 - $75,000 (Tom Crown Buy Zone).

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Bearish Retest]: Bitcoin bounces from oversold conditions ($82k region) to retest the breakdown level at $91,000. This level rejects, confirming the bearish trend, and price rolls over to fill the CME gap at $85.3k and potentially lower to $75k.
  2. Scenario 2 – [The Deep Flush]: Immediate failure to hold $82,000 leads to panic selling down to the $71,000 - $75,000 accumulation zone, where long-term bulls (Tom Crown, Ivan on Tech) are waiting.
  3. Scenario 3 – [Bullish Reclamation]: Price reclaims $96,000 with high volume. This invalidates the bearish thesis (Alessio Rastani) and puts $103,000 back in play.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • Market Cipher B: Watch for a Green Dot on the 4H/Daily timeframe to signal a relief bounce is starting, but treat it as a counter-trend trade until $96k is reclaimed.
  • Risk Warning: Shorting at the bottom ($82k) is dangerous (MMCrypto). Wait for the bounce to resistance ($91k) to deploy capital.
  • Altcoin Divergence: SOL is showing relative strength in sentiment; monitor SOLBTC for potential decoupling.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • Cyclical Bear? Benjamin Cowen warns of a cyclical bear market into 2026 if $103k isn't reclaimed soon.
  • Long-Term Bull: PlanB and Ivan on Tech remain bullish on the multi-year timeframe ($500k targets), suggesting this is a "healthy reset" (Pompliano) for accumulation.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Execution: Do not FOMO short into the $82k support. Let the market breathe. Set limit orders at the retest levels.
  • Mindset: "The trend is your friend until it bends." The bend has happened; respect the downtrend until proven otherwise.