🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Mon Nov 24 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Failed Auction at ATH: Following a rejection near the $100,000+ psychological barrier, Bitcoin has entered a sharp correction. Chart Champions notes a classic "failed auction" pattern, signaling institutional distribution.
  • Support Defense: The market is currently attempting to stabilize. While bears (MMCrypto, Camel Finance) target deeper liquidity around $82,000, bulls (Crypto World, InvestAnswers) are defending the $90,000 region, pushing for a relief bounce toward $93,000.
  • Volatility Spike: We are witnessing a high-volatility "reset," with Pompliano estimating a ~33% drawdown from peak, flushing leverage before the next leg.

📰 News for Today

  • Institutional Outlook: Despite the drop, Bitwise CIO (via Scott Melker) asserts the "real bull market" is just starting, driven by the Clarity Act and ETF flows.
  • Altcoin Rotations: Ripple (XRP) and Hedera (HBAR) are showing decoupled strength, with rumors of significant valuation repricing for XRP (Cheeky Crypto) and technical breakouts for HBAR (Marzell Crypto).
  • Macro Headwinds: Benjamin Cowen warns this bounce may be a "lower high" before a macro bear market resumes in 2026, suggesting the $104,000 level (200-Day SMA) as a critical line in the sand.

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context:

  • Structure: Bearish consolidation / Potential Dead Cat Bounce. The market is oversold on lower timeframes, seeking a relief rally, but the higher timeframe trend has shifted to short-term bearish.

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: $94,000 (Local), $100,000 - $104,000 (Major Short Zone).
  • Support: $90,000 (Weak), $84,000 - $86,000 (Strong/Golden Pocket), $82,000 (Bear Target).

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Relief Rally Fade]: Price reclaims $93k and squeezes shorts up to the breakdown point at $100,000 - $102,000. This aligns with InvestAnswers' target. We look to SHORT heavily into this strength, anticipating a lower high.
  2. Scenario 2 – [The Deep Flush Buy]: Bears drive price through $90k to sweep liquidity at $84,000 - $86,000. This aligns with My Financial Friend and Rastani's accumulation zones. We ladder LONG bids here for a bounce back to $95k.
  3. Scenario 3 – [Neutral/Chop]: Price ranges between $90k and $94k. We stay cash or scalp altcoins (HBAR/XRP) until a range breakout occurs.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • Market Cipher B: Look for Bullish Divergence on the 4H chart (Price lower low, Momentum Wave higher low) as we approach $84k. Wait for the Green Dot to trigger the long.
  • The Trap: Do not FOMO into longs at $93k. The risk/reward is poor. Wait for the flush or the re-test of highs.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • The consensus is split. While the immediate structure is damaged, the long-term thesis (2026 Bull Run) remains intact for many (Hayes, Melker). We are likely in a multi-week consolidation phase similar to mid-cycle resets.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Patience Pays: "The money is made in the waiting." Do not market buy the middle of the range ($92k).
  • Execution: Use limit orders to catch wicks. The volatility is high enough that price will likely come to your levels.