🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Mon Nov 24 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Liquidity Sweep in Progress: Bitcoin is currently sitting at a pivotal junction. Intel indicates price is testing the validity of the $86,000 weekly level (Rekt Capital).
  • The CME Magnet: Price action is heavy, seemingly drawn toward an unclosed CME gap at $85,300 identified by Crypto Rover.
  • Conflicting Signals: We have a classic "Death Cross" appearing (Cowen, Mister Crypto), usually a bearish signal, yet historical analysis suggests a 75% probability of a rally following this specific signal (Alessio Rastani).

📰 News for Today

  • Macro Politics: Lark Davis highlights Trump's proposed $20T plan as a major liquidity driver for BTC.
  • Market Sentiment: Sentiment is polarized; Bears (Cowen, Banter) see a cycle top or deep correction to $74.5k, while Bulls (Rekt, Casper) see this as a shakeout before $93k.
  • Altcoin Alerts: Mark Moss warns Zcash hype may be manufactured exit liquidity; keeping focus on BTC dominance.

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context:

  • Structure: Sideways/Correction. We are trapped between a "Death Cross" narrative and a "Bullish Liquidity Sweep."
  • Bias: Neutral-Bullish if $85.3k holds; Bearish below $84k.

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: $93,000 (Rekt Target), $95,000 (Psychological).
  • Support: $86,000 (Weekly Level), $85,300 (CME Gap), $74,500 (Macro Bear Target).

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Gap & Go (Bullish)]: Price dips to fill the CME gap at $85,300 and sweeps liquidity. We look for a Market Cipher B Bullish Divergence (Green Dot + Higher Low on Momentum) on the 4H timeframe. If confirmed, we target $93,000.
  2. Scenario 2 – [The Death Cross Flush (Bearish)]: If $85,300 fails to hold as support and we close a daily candle below $84,000, the "Cowen/Mister Crypto" scenario activates. We wait for a relief bounce to $86k to Short, targeting $74,500.
  3. Scenario 3 – [The Range Trap]: Price chops between $86k and $90k. Execute range plays: Long the lows ($86k), Short the highs ($90k) with tight stops.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • Confluence: The $85,300 level is the "Line in the Sand." It is a CME gap and close to the weekly support ($86k). A bounce here is the highest probability setup.
  • Warning: Crypto Banter warns that short-term relief pumps are likely liquidity traps. Do not FOMO into green candles; bid the red ones.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • While the "Death Cross" (MA Crossover) scares retail, smart money (InvestAnswers, Rastani) views this as a liquidity-driven cycle extension rather than a cycle end. Trump's liquidity injection plans support the long-term bullish thesis despite short-term noise.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Mindset: "Trade the chart, not the fear." The Death Cross is a lagging indicator; price often reverses by the time it prints.
  • Execution: Set limit orders at $85,350. Do not market buy the bounce.