🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Mon Nov 24 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Correction Confirmed: Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback, losing key structural support at $103,000 and $98,000. The market capitulated towards the $82,000 region (as reported by MMCrypto and others).
  • Technical Breakdown: A "Death Cross" has been noted by multiple analysts (Cowen, Rastani, Mister Crypto), triggering algorithmic selling and shifting short-term sentiment to bearish/neutral.
  • Trap Identification: The drop flushed out late longs. Bulls like Scott Melker and Anthony Pompliano suggest this is a "healthy reset" and bottom signals are now flashing, implying the current low ($82k-$86k) might be a bear trap before a relief rally.

📰 News for Today

  • Institutional flows: Despite the drop, InvestAnswers and Coin Bureau note that long-term metrics (Bollinger Bands, LEAPS demand) remain constructive.
  • Macro Factors: Possible December rate cuts and liquidity injections are cited by EllioTrades and Scott Melker as reasons for a mid-term recovery into 2026.
  • Regulatory: Altcoin Daily highlights regulatory shifts as a dormant catalyst waiting to support a reversal.

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context:

  • Structure: Range-Bound / Correction. We are currently in a high-volatility range between $82,000 (Support) and $93,000 - $98,000 (Resistance). The immediate trend is down, but oversold conditions suggest a bounce.

Key Levels:

  • Resistance (Sell Zone): $93,000 (Local), $98,000 (Major Breakdown Level), $103,000 (Trend Reversal Line).
  • Support (Buy Zone): $86,000 (Rekt Capital Range Low), $82,000 (Recent Low), $74,500 (Bear Target).

Long Setup(s):

  • Ladder bids in the $82,500 - $85,500 zone. Look for Market Cipher B Bullish Divergence on the 4H timeframe to confirm the bottom.

Short Setup(s):

  • Ladder asks in the $97,200 - $98,800 zone. This retests the breakdown level as new resistance (MMCrypto's scenario).

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Dead Cat Bounce]: Bitcoin bounces from $82k/$86k due to oversold RSI. Price rallies to test $93k or $98k. If Money Flow remains Red on Market Cipher, this is a Shorting Opportunity anticipating a rejection and lower lows.
  2. Scenario 2 – [The Reclaim (Bullish V-Shape)]: Price reclaims $93,000 quickly and grinds up to challenge $103,000. A daily close above $103,000 invalidates the bearish thesis (Cowen).
  3. Scenario 3 – [Capitulation Extension]: Failure to hold $82,000 triggers a cascade to $73,000 - $74,500 (Crypto Crow/Mister Crypto targets). Smart money accumulation (Crypto Rover) likely sits here.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • Confluence: The $98,000 level is now a massive pivot. It was support; it is now resistance. Expect a fight there.
  • Sentiment Split: The "Deep Trader Intel" is sharply divided. Macro bulls (PlanB, Pompliano) vs. Short-term Bears (MMCrypto, Mister Crypto). This conflict usually breeds chop—DO NOT FOMO.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • While the short-term looks ugly with the Death Cross, the macro thesis for 2026 remains intact (PlanB, Lark Davis). This is likely a mid-cycle correction to flush leverage before the run to $150k+. Treat drops as accumulation for spot, but trade the volatility with strict stops.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Commandment #6: Trade like the market is sideways. Do not short the bottom of the range ($82k) and do not long the top ($98k).
  • Execution: Use limit orders. The volatility is high enough that market orders will get slippage. Let the price come to your ladders.