🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Tue Nov 25 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Correction Continues: The market is currently in a corrective phase, with multiple nodes (Crypto Banter, The Trading Channel) forecasting a continuation of the "dump" for the next 48 hours.
  • Liquidity Hunt: Reports from Chart Junkies and Mega Whale Crypto suggest the recent moves are a "trap" designed to liquidate over-leveraged traders before any real reversal.
  • Structure: We have lost short-term momentum, failing to reclaim the $103,000 level (Benjamin Cowen), pushing price towards key support clusters.

📰 News for Today

  • Institutional Flows: Despite the price drop, InvestAnswers reports continued ETF inflows, suggesting institutional absorption of retail selling.
  • CME Gap Focus: Crypto Rover highlights a CME gap at $85,300 that is likely to be filled within the week.
  • Macro Anxiety: Simon Dixon warns of geopolitical manipulation crashing the price for asset seizure, while J_Bravo predicts a broader economic downturn.

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context: Price is trending down into a high-probability Support Cluster. The consensus is Short-Term Bearish -> Medium-Term Bullish. We are looking to catch the "W Pattern" reversal.

Key Levels:

  • Resistance (Pivot): $87,400 (Must close month above this – Coin Bureau).
  • Resistance (Hard): $97,000 - $103,000.
  • Support Zone: $83,000 - $85,300 (Immediate Bounce Zone).
  • Deep Value: $79,000 (Crypto Banter's "W" buy signal).

Long Setup(s):

  • Zone: Ladder bids from $85,300 down to $79,000.
  • Trigger: 4H/Daily Market Cipher B Green Dot + Money Flow crossing upward.

Short Setup(s):

  • Zone: Rejection at $103,000 or a confirmed loss of $74,500 (Mister Crypto).

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Liquidity Wick & Bounce]: Bitcoin pushes down to fill the CME gap at $85,300 and potentially wicks to $83,000. Bulls step in, defending the Coin Bureau monthly pivot ($87.4k), creating a V-shape recovery targeting $97k.
  2. Scenario 2 – [The Deep W-Pattern]: Selling pressure intensifies (as predicted by Crypto Banter), driving price to $79,000. This sweeps all late longs. Smart money accumulates here for a run back to $100k+.
  3. Scenario 3 – [Bear Market Confirmation]: Price crashes through $79,000 and fails to hold $74,500 (Mister Crypto's line in the sand). This validates Lark Davis's bear market call.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • Confluence: The $83k-$85k zone aligns with the CME gap and The Trading Channel's support cluster.
  • Time Factor: Crypto Banter and The Trading Channel both mention a 48-hour window for this drop. Patience is key; let the volatility settle.
  • Contradiction Alert: Coin Bureau wants a close >$87.4k, while Banter calls for $79k. A wick to $79k that closes the month above $87.4k satisfies both bullish narratives.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • Macro: PlanB remains steadfast on $500k by 2028. Anthony Pompliano views this as a "healthy correction." The long-term trend remains UP as long as we hold the macro higher lows established in late 2024.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Mindset: "Trade like the market is sideways." Do not FOMO short into support. Place limit buys where others are panic selling.
  • Execution: Ladder your entries. Do not go all-in at $85k. Save 50% of your clip for the potential $79k flush.