🚀 Bitcoin Market Analysis – Tue Nov 25 2025

🔍 Trade Recap and Observations

Yesterday’s Price Action:

  • Bitcoin has undergone a significant correction, breaking below the psychological $98,000 level and flushing out late leverage.
  • Network consensus identifies this drawdown as a "healthy reset," with extreme fear readings suggesting a potential local bottom is forming.
  • Technical nodes report a "wash-out" of sentiment, often a precursor to a reversal, while bears warn that the current bounce could merely be a relief rally before testing lower support.

📰 News for Today

  • Macro Liquidity: Analysts highlight impending rate cuts and the end of quantitative tightening as key drivers for a renewed liquidity cycle favoring risk assets.
  • Institutional Flows: Despite the dip, reports indicate sustained accumulation by large entities and potential "games" by traditional finance to secure cheaper entry prices.
  • CME Gap: Significant attention is being paid to a CME gap around $85,300, which often acts as a magnet for price action before a true reversal can occur.

🎯 Morning Setup

Market Context: The market is currently in a Deep Correction / Potential Accumulation phase. We are looking for a "W pattern" formation or a confirmed base around the mid-$80k region. The primary strategy is to fade the fear into major structural support.

Key Levels:

  • Resistance: $93,000 (Weekly Level), $95,000 (Psychological), $98,000 (Previous Breakdown).
  • Support: $87,400 (Monthly Level), $86,000 (Base Support), $85,300 (CME Gap).

Long Setup (BTC):

  • Focus: Accumulation Zone
  • Zone: $85,000 - $86,500
  • Trigger: Wait for Market Cipher B Bullish Divergence (Lower Low in Price, Higher Low in Blue Momentum Waves) on the 1H/4H charts, followed by a Green Dot confirmation.

Short Setup (BTC):

  • Focus: Rejection Play
  • Zone: $92,500 - $93,500
  • Trigger: Bearish retest of the breakdown level if momentum stalls.

📈 Analysis & Scenarios

  1. Scenario 1 – [The Liquidity Sweep & Reclaim]: Price dips to fill the CME gap at $85,300, triggering limit orders and creating a long wick. This sweeps the lows ($83k-$84k) to trap shorts before reclaiming $87,400. This is the highest probability setup for a swing long.
  2. Scenario 2 – [Dead Cat Bounce]: Price rallies weakly to $92,000-$93,000 but fails to reclaim the level. Momentum waves show hidden bearish divergence, leading to a rollover towards $80,000.
  3. Scenario 3 – [Immediate V-Shape]: Bulls step in aggressively at $87,400 (protecting the monthly close level), forcing a squeeze back to $95,000 without filling lower gaps.

⚠️ Key Observations & Strategy Notes

  • Confluence: The $85k-$86k zone aligns with previous structural support and the CME gap. This area is a high-confluence zone for a bounce.
  • Volatility Warning: Expect "manipulative tactics" and stop-hunts. Do not place stops too tight; give the trade room to breathe below the volatility wicks.
  • Momentum: Watch Money Flow. If the Green Money Flow thickens on the 4H despite falling price, it confirms institutional absorption.

🔮 Big Picture Outlook

  • The macro consensus remains bullish long-term, driven by Stock-to-Flow projections and global money printing. The current dip is viewed by seasoned analysts as an opportunity to position for the next leg up towards $100k, provided the $86k base holds on a weekly closing basis.

💡 Pro Tips

  • Mindset: "Trade the range, not the rage." Panic selling is high; be the liquidity provider, not the victim.
  • Execution: Use limit orders to scale into the drop. Do not chase green candles if the V-shape happens; wait for a retest.
  • Risk: Ensure your stop loss allows for >5% deviation to avoid wick-outs in this high-volatility environment.